Altseason: What It Is and How It Relates to Bitcoin Dominance

Altseason is a period when most altcoins grow faster than Bitcoin, usually against a backdrop of falling Bitcoin dominance on the market. The logic is simple: when capital flows out of Bitcoin into alternative coins, those start to outpace it in growth. But altseason cannot be precisely forecast, it has no fixed date, and in recent years analysts argue whether it arrives at all in the old broad form.

Altseason in crypto is awaited like a holiday, promising fast multiples on altcoins. I treat the topic soberly: altseason is a market cycle, not a signal and certainly not a guarantee. Let's go through what altseason is, how it relates to Bitcoin dominance, by what signs it is recognized, and why betting on it blindly is risky.

In this article we'll cover:

• altseason is a period when most altcoins grow faster than Bitcoin;
• its catalyst is usually a fall in Bitcoin dominance and a flow of capital into alts;
• altseason cannot be precisely predicted: it has no date and no official announcement;
• in recent years it is debated whether a broad altseason arrives at all or has given way to selective rallies.

Let's start with what altseason even is.

What altseason is in simple terms

Altseason — a period on the crypto market when most altcoins, that is all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin, show faster growth than Bitcoin itself. The name is a shortening of the phrase altcoin season.

To measure this state, the Altcoin Season Index is used. Its logic is simple: it looks at how many coins from the top of the market by capitalization have outpaced Bitcoin in growth over roughly the last three months. If the overwhelming majority do, for example over three quarters of the largest coins in that period, the market is considered to have entered an altseason phase. So altseason is not a point or a specific day but a stretched-out phase, when the market's attention and money gradually shift from Bitcoin to the rest of the coins. What cryptocurrencies and altcoins even are I cover in the piece on the basics of cryptocurrency.

In short: altseason is not a day but a stretched-out phase when most altcoins outpace Bitcoin; it is measured by the Altcoin Season Index: if over three quarters of the largest coins beat Bitcoin over three months, the market is considered in season.

Altseason and Bitcoin dominance

The key to understanding altseason is Bitcoin dominance, that is Bitcoin's share in the total capitalization of the crypto market. When dominance is high, money is concentrated in Bitcoin, and alts usually lag. When dominance begins to fall noticeably, it often means capital is flowing out of Bitcoin into altcoins, and those start to grow faster than the market. So it is precisely a fall in Bitcoin dominance that is seen as one of the main forerunners of a possible altseason. I cover the metric itself in detail in the piece on Bitcoin dominance.

The classic rotation scenario looks like this. First Bitcoin grows and pulls the market with it. Then, when its growth slows, investors take profit in Bitcoin and shift it into altcoins in search of higher returns, and their surge begins. Historically, pronounced altseasons happened precisely after a strong Bitcoin rally, when the first wave of profit was already taken and investors looked for where to put it next. The 2020 to 2021 cycle remains the textbook case, when Bitcoin's share fell sharply and almost the entire top of the market outpaced it at once. But it is important to understand: this is only a typical pattern, not a law, and you cannot lean on it as a schedule. What drives the big crypto cycles is partly explained by the halving, the four-year cycle of Bitcoin issuance cuts.

In short: watch Bitcoin dominance, its share of market cap: high dominance means money sits in Bitcoin and alts lag, a clear drop in dominance is often the capital flowing into alts; but that is a pattern, not a schedule.

Can you earn on an altseason: a sober view

The lure of altseason is understandable: at its peak many altcoins show growth of several times, and some even tens of times in a short span. But a sober view requires naming the other side. First, altseason cannot be precisely forecast: it has no fixed date and no official start, it often begins sharply after a lull and ends just as sharply. Catching its start and end in time is extremely hard, and most are late: they enter alts at the peak of hype, when the season is almost over, and are left with a loss on the fall that follows.

The very structure of the market may have changed. In recent years some analysts state outright that the broad altseason, when almost everything rises at once, is a thing of the past, giving way to selective rallies of particular projects and sectors while liquidity concentrates in Bitcoin and Ethereum, partly through ETF inflows. It is a contested question and opinions differ, but the very fact of the debate shows that waiting blindly for past scenarios to repeat is naive. So my approach stays the same: I do not build a strategy on a forecast of altseason and do not buy alts on the mere expectation of growth. Any coin I assess by its own data and read by volume and levels, not by faith in a season. This isn't personal advice, it is just how I look at the topic. The general dangers of the crypto market I cover in the piece on the risks of cryptocurrency, and how fundamentals set direction in the course section on fundamental analysis.

In short: don't build a strategy on a forecast of altseason, almost no one catches its start and end, and most enter at the peak of hype; assess every coin by its own data, volume and levels, not by faith in a season.